The United States recently reached a negative COVID-19 milestone – more than 1 Million deaths. I started to think about writing this blog post last December when the count was ‘only’ 800,000. How do we understand, appreciate and communicate large numbers?
Continue reading “Magnitude and context”Tag: Official Statistics
Dangers of combining averages
Misinterpreting statistics is not a rare phenomenon and happens everywhere in the world. Very often it happens by the use of averages, as many understand statistics as the “science of averages,” but also with use of percentages, indices and other statistics.
Continue reading “Dangers of combining averages”Statistics in the Time of Politics
The well-known book Love in the Time of War tells a story of two people whose marriage is irrevocably shaped by the harsh realities of a war. Well, this is a story of two people whose lives are shaped by the harsh realities of politics now… and a bit more… just because of the commitment of the two people to protecting the integrity of official statistics.
Continue reading “Statistics in the Time of Politics”COVID-induced nightmare for a big school in a developing country
It is important for us to appreciate the challenges facing education around the world, particularly in developing countries. Following a recent post by Monday Osagie Adenomon, “Data speak louder than words” (22 June 2021), I decided to add to the conversation, by reflecting on my experiences as an educator in another African country.
Continue reading “COVID-induced nightmare for a big school in a developing country”The devil is in the detail
On August 2, 2021, the US government announced it had met its goal of 70% vaccinated. But what does that mean? 70% of what? And what does vaccinated mean? Well, they meant that 70% of US adults has received at least one dose of vaccine. That actually means 59% of the population in the United States has received at least one shot (and thereby are fairly well protected against the COVID-19 disease with the possible exception of the delta variant). It corresponds to 69% of those 12 and over (who are eligible for the vaccine in the US). But in terms of the entire population, those fully vaccinated (with one or two doses, depending on the vaccine used) make up 50%. The risk of catching the disease for vaccinated people is relatively low, but much higher for unvaccinated individuals.
Continue reading “The devil is in the detail”One country’s problem, nobody’s problem, everybody’s problem
When we think about massive migrations and humanitarian crises in the last five to ten years, we probably first picture the migrant waves caused by the conflict in Syria that started in 2011. After 10 years of civil war, 6.6 million people have been forced out of that country, and, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), 6.7 million more remain internally displaced. More than 90% of Syrian migrants have found refuge in the neighboring countries of Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq. Migrants also flee to European countries like Greece, Germany, and Sweden. This unfortunate and sad episode of human suffering might eclipse the second largest migratory movement and humanitarian crisis of recent years: the Venezuelan diaspora.
Continue reading “One country’s problem, nobody’s problem, everybody’s problem”Peanut butter, anyone?
There is a lot of talk about how this ghastly pandemic is affecting the economy. The other day, I came across an article in the The New York Times which focused on one facet of this topic: inflation in the UK. Forecasting inflation right now is difficult because of the pandemic: sudden changes in consumer spending, disruptions in supply chains, and government interventions ameliorate its effects.
Continue reading “Peanut butter, anyone?”How to save yourself using a bit of logic and statistics
Logical versus emotional motives. Perceptions versus observed numbers. We are always facing a fight between two sides of the same coin. When we feel anxious, scared, or worried, we look for certainty. Several examples arise in day-life activities.
Continue reading “How to save yourself using a bit of logic and statistics”The curious incident of infected young people
Around the middle of July 2020, the Italian National Institute of Health released statistics on the Covid-19 situation in the country, and it appeared that a substantial number of confirmed cases were concentrated in 19 to 50 year olds, making up 47% of the total, and the average age of those who tested positive was 46 years old — compared to 61 at the beginning of the pandemic. Should we conclude younger people are more likely to get infected today? Possibly yes, but it depends.
Continue reading “The curious incident of infected young people”Pandemic and Statistics Marriage: Happy or not? Can we make it work?
The world is immersed in the worst cataclysm of the last 100 years. The quality of the data and the transparency of the methods worldwide is key to solve it. The International Statistical Institute (ISI) may have a leading role in their improvement.
Continue reading “Pandemic and Statistics Marriage: Happy or not? Can we make it work?”