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Candy cane shortages and the importance of variation

It’s the holiday season in much of the world, and this year that means not just early sunsets and school breaks but also supply chain woes.  Everything, from puzzles and hot sauce to peppermint candy canes, is in short supply this month, as the global economy struggles to get items from point A to point B.

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Candy cane shortages and the importance of variation
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Coronavirus baby bust?

Early in the pandemic, people started speculating about potential effects on birth rates. I started talking about news and research that asked the question, “Will coronavirus cause a baby boom, or is that just a myth?” At the time, I ended with a not-so-satisfying “we’ll know in about 9 months.”

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Coronavirus baby bust?
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Uncertainty and prediction

A Danish proverb asserts that Prediction is hard – especially about the future. Prediction is especially hard when it comes to describing uncertainty. Today, the US votes (or finishes voting) on the next President, and there is a lot of interest in forecasting, formal or informal.

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Uncertainty and prediction