The answer is no, but Moneyball might be a nudge in the right direction. I was born and live in Greenland where unicorns (also known as narwhals) roam beneath the waves. In most other cultures, unicorns are horsy creatures who roam somewhere over the rainbow. In western cultures (as defined by those who read Harry Potter) killing a unicorn is an unspeakably evil deed. It used to be different, at least for the sea creature.
Continue reading “Can Moneyball save the unicorn?”Tag: Risk
The devil is in the detail
On August 2, 2021, the US government announced it had met its goal of 70% vaccinated. But what does that mean? 70% of what? And what does vaccinated mean? Well, they meant that 70% of US adults has received at least one dose of vaccine. That actually means 59% of the population in the United States has received at least one shot (and thereby are fairly well protected against the COVID-19 disease with the possible exception of the delta variant). It corresponds to 69% of those 12 and over (who are eligible for the vaccine in the US). But in terms of the entire population, those fully vaccinated (with one or two doses, depending on the vaccine used) make up 50%. The risk of catching the disease for vaccinated people is relatively low, but much higher for unvaccinated individuals.
Continue reading “The devil is in the detail”Where will the rocket land?
“No, you are almost certainly not going to be hit by a 10-story, 23-ton piece of a rocket hurtling back to Earth. That said, the chances are not zero.” Thus The New York Times on May 6 writing about the impending reentry of the first stage of the Chinese CZ-5B rocket, which had been launched the day before to test a spacecraft prototype. Unlike most rockets sent into orbit these days, which are designed to either burn up in the atmosphere or land in the ocean, this rocket stage would experience an “uncontrolled re-entry” and crash in an unknown location.
Continue reading “Where will the rocket land?”Did Hamlet wish for better data?
To open or not to open? that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them.
William Shakespeare, Hamlet
Did Hamlet wish for better data?
Continue reading “Did Hamlet wish for better data?”Missing the evidence
A story in the Guardian on February 28 is headlined Pfizer vaccine may be less effective in people with obesity, says study. As the story says, the ‘study’ in question is a preprint. That’s not necessarily a problem; preprints have been a valuable source of up-to-date information during the Covid pandemic, at least when used with care.
Continue reading “Missing the evidence”How to save yourself using a bit of logic and statistics
Logical versus emotional motives. Perceptions versus observed numbers. We are always facing a fight between two sides of the same coin. When we feel anxious, scared, or worried, we look for certainty. Several examples arise in day-life activities.
Continue reading “How to save yourself using a bit of logic and statistics”To bike or not to bike … in a group?
As the world waits for the vaccine, many people wonder what activities are safe to help pass the time. I am the same, wondering if it is safe to bike outside in a group or not.
Continue reading “To bike or not to bike … in a group?”Graph vs. Statistician
A friend recently posted this graph from an investment company flyer as evidence that the risk of death from COVID-19 is much smaller than the mainstream media are suggesting.
Continue reading “Graph vs. Statistician”My COVID-19 test is positive … do I really have it?
Michael DeWine, governor of the state of Ohio in the United States, provided a visible example of the properties of screening tests.
Continue reading “My COVID-19 test is positive … do I really have it?”On science, uncertainty, the atomic bomb, and covid-19
To be conservative in one’s assumptions is a much-celebrated virtue in science, but the term carries an ambiguity that deserves highlighting.
Continue reading “On science, uncertainty, the atomic bomb, and covid-19”