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How to save yourself using a bit of logic and statistics

Logical versus emotional motives. Perceptions versus observed numbers. We are always facing a fight between two sides of the same coin. When we feel anxious, scared, or worried, we look for certainty. Several examples arise in day-life activities. 

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How to save yourself using a bit of logic and statistics
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The Way of the Statistician and the Way of the Physicist

The rules of evidence as presented in statistics textbooks are not the same as the informal criteria that statisticians and practitioners use in deciding what methods to use.  What are the similarities and differences between statistical thinking and the modeling done in the physical sciences?

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The Way of the Statistician and the Way of the Physicist
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The accidental experiment that saved 700 lives

Paul Alper sends along this news article by Sarah Kliff, who writes: “Three years ago, 3.9 million Americans received a plain-looking envelope from the Internal Revenue Service. Inside was a letter stating that they had recently paid a fine for not carrying health insurance and suggesting possible ways to enroll in coverage. . . .”

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The accidental experiment that saved 700 lives
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The curious incident of infected young people

Around the middle of July 2020, the Italian National Institute of Health released statistics on the Covid-19 situation in the country, and it appeared that a substantial number of confirmed cases were concentrated in 19 to 50 year olds, making up 47% of the total, and the average age of those who tested positive was 46 years old — compared to 61 at the beginning of the pandemic. Should we conclude younger people are more likely to get infected today? Possibly yes, but it depends.

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The curious incident of infected young people
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Being certainly uncertain

Last month, I read in a local paper: “Roughly three million Filipinos, or 2.6 percent of the national population, may have already been infected with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from April to June …”

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Being certainly uncertain